Badugi Poker Odds

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• Badugi Poker Odds

Odds in Badugi poker are pretty different from Texas Holdem, to say the least. The game are as different as two poker games may be, and counting outs is a completely different animal. We’ll take a quick look at some situations in Badugi and see what kind of odds you’re looking at.

Odds of improving a three-card hand

When you draw one card to a three-hand, there are 13 cards in the deck that will improve your hand to a four-hand – all the cards of the suit that you don’t hold. Since you have seen 4 cards, 48 unseen cards remain. The odds of improving in one card are 35 to 13, or around 27%. You’re an underdog to improve to a four-hand. If you can draw two or three times, chances go up to approximately 47% (two draws) and 61% (three draws). But staying in the hand might be costly. On the other hand, a three-hand is rarely a winner and drawing a card cannot make it worse, so drawing is always correct if for some reason you stay in the hand.

Odds of improving a four card hand

If you already have four-hand, the odds of improving by drawing a card are worse than for a three hand. Fewer cards will improve you hand, and all the cards that don’t improve it will make it worse – that’s the nature of Badugi. Say for example that you have A-2-3-8. If you discard the 8 and draw one card, which cards would improve your hand? Actually only 4 cards: the 4, 5, 6 and 7 in the same suit as the 8. For you to have a four hand, all four cards must be of different suits, so it’s a given that the eight is of another suit than the three lower cards, and you must stay in this suit or else you’ll flush one of the other cards and have a three hand, which is always worse than a four hand. If you have a K, there are 9 outs, nine cards that will improve your hand. In one draw you’re about 19% underdog to improve. In three draws your chances go up to a little more than 50%.

So often, drawing to a four hand is a long shot. Of course, if it’s on the first draw and several players remain in the hand, you may draw with pretty slim chances in the hopes of winning a number of extra bets on the remaining streets. Of if you’re confident that an opponent has a good made hand, you may draw to catch a premium hand and be well paid off by the good but not so good hand. On the other hand, a four-hand might have some chances to win the pot, and by drawing a card you’re likely to ruin it, often by making a three card hand. Drawing to a four-hand is much less evident than to a three-hand.

Other factors

As always you must take all factors into consideration. Is the pot big? Then draw more often. Are there many streets left and/or many players still in the hand? Then draw more often. Do the opponents draw? Then your hand might be good, and drawing would be imprudent. Then, of course, you may always stand pat and try a bluff. Then, the odds of success depend mostly on psychological factors. Good bluff! Not all poker sites offer Badugi, but you’ll find it at a few online poker rooms, such as Carbon Poker.